The Video Game Revue

Console Wars Predictions

Over the past six months or so I've had time to take a look at what the Wii, Xbox 360, and PlayStation 3 all have to offer, and I've made some important observations that have lead me to make a few predictions for the coming years:

Observation #1: The current gen of "next gen" consoles isn't ripe yet.

Frankly, not one of the Wii, Xbox 360, or PlayStation 3 is worth owning right now. If your interest is strictly in real games appreciated by real gamers, the only console that is an absolute must at present is the PlayStation 2 (yes, two.) Aside from a handful of gems like Zelda: Twilight Princess and Gears of War, all that's really available for any of the new systems at this point in time are novelties. (You should also own a gaming PC and a Nintendo DS, of course.)

Case in point: in the time since the Wii came out (regular readers may recall that I bought mine on launch day), I've purchased more PS2 games than Wii games and spent much more time on my PS2 than on my Wii. I've been tempted to buy an Xbox 360 but every time I sit down to seriously consider it, I find that there aren't quite enough games available to make it worth my while yet (it is a close call, however; and oddly enough, a lot of the games that I do want are Xbox Live Arcade games.) The PlayStation 3 line-up as it stands right now is a complete joke, unless you're counting titles that are still in development.

Given all that, it's obviously too early to declare a victor in the console war. It may be tempting to say that the PS3 is bombing and the Wii is taking over, but we're still in the preliminaries as far as this battle royale is concerned.

Observation #2: The Wii is doing very well.

Nintendo has obviously hit upon a dynamite formula with the accessibility of the Wii and the hype surrounding it. The one thing holding this little dynamo back is that it isn't packing the kind of next-gen hardware under the hood that it's competition has; but frankly, gamers care about more than merely what games offer the best eye candy. Just look at how well the PS2 is still doing, and consider how visually appealing a game like Super Paper Mario is despite the fact that it lacks high-definition graphics.

From what I'm able to tell, the Wii has populated the popular consciousness in a way that the more hardcore Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 haven't. In addition to that, Nintendo isn't taking as big a risk on the Wii as Microsoft and Sony are on their products because each Wii sold pays for itself whereas the Xbox 360 and PS3 are both hefty loss-leaders. No matter how you paint the current picture, the bottom-line is that Nintendo is happy with their situation.

Observation #3: The Xbox 360 has been a bittersweet experience so far.

There are a lot of things that I love about the Xbox 360 experience, from the lineup of Xbox Live Arcade titles (including classic stuff like Geometry Wars and Pac-Man Championship Edition) to the excellent controller design and the overall look and feel of the console itself. This is a huge upgrade from what the original Xbox was like, in my opinion.

However, there are also a lot of stories about frustrated Xbox 360 owners who have had their consoles break down (sometimes repeatedly), and there's the spotty support for original Xbox games. These cracks disturb the otherwise elegant Xbox 360 experience in a jarring way, which reminds users that they are dealing with the sort of sloppily engineered, brute-force kind of products that Microsoft seems to be only capable of making. This state of affairs may turn around in time (I've heard anecdotal evidence that the Xbox 360 Elite doesn't break down as much as), but while Microsoft works on patching their products, their competitors are making additional progress as well.

Observation #4: Japanese developers are focused on the PS3.

The PS3 is doing so poorly so far with its games line-up that I'm almost tempted to believe what some of the critics are saying about Sony being in serious trouble this time. It troubles me to hear developers saying that PlayStation 3 development is so difficult while the Xbox 360 positions itself as a platform for casual games made by smaller developers. And as much as I'm looking forward to Devil May Cry 4 and Metal Gear Solid 4, those titles alone may not prove to be enough to justify the purchase of an $800 behemoth.

But the fact of the matter is that developers in Japan are dead serious about making PlayStation 3 games, and from where I stand, support from companies like Capcom, Konami, Namco, and Square-Enix is the most important factor. Games like Devil May Cry 4 and Metal Gear Solid 3 aren't rushed productions aimed to cash in and get out; rather, they are generally seen as long-term commitments by companies like Capcom and Konami to establish a lasting presence. It would take something of a disaster to bring the PlayStation 3 down, and in spite of what some alarmists might be saying, that disaster hasn't happened yet. (And yes, it's also true that the PlayStation 2 got off to a painfully slow start in 2001 and ended up being the clear victor of the last console war.)

Observation #5: Electronic distribution and retro game products are becoming a serious factor.

Each of the current consoles has an online service that gouges gamers for the ability to play old games. I've complained long and hard about how unfair it is that old games simply go away rather than being continually republished, and the current model of electronic distribution is finally stepping up to resolve that issue. These are also obvious cash cows for Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft, as they are able to rehash old hits and make a fair chunk of change while bypassing the costly process of putting physical copies of games on actual store shelves.

In addition to making it a little bit easier for the major players to cash in on the video game industry (while creating some opportunity for little guys as well), these direct-download games also provide a big draw for casual gamers who are looking for simpler, more pure games that aren't encumbered by millions of dollars of production value and frustratingly complex game mechanics. This is merely one of the reasons why console gaming has attained a noticeably broader appeal in the past year.

Prediction #1: None of the new consoles is going to die off.

This is perhaps the least secure of my predictions, but I don't think that any of the current industry players (Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft) will screw up badly enough to take them out of the picture. The last console generation (PS2, Xbox, GameCube) firmly established that there is, in fact, enough room for three major console platforms, and there is still plenty of brand loyalty going around.

Furthermore, each of the current console systems offers something that the others don't. The Wii is a great choice for casual gamers and family-oriented gamers (a formula that worked well enough for the GameCube), the PlayStation 3 has the appeal of Japanese producer support and cutting edge hardware (including the ability to play Blu-Ray movies), and the Xbox 360 still holds sway with the utterly un-influential, yet lucrative jock-gamer crowd. These consoles are only in competition with each other where they cover common ground, and it seems to me that they each still hold a large enough corner of the industry on their own to survive.

Prediction #2: Nay-sayers won't drag the Wii down (but Nintendo's history of family-oriented gaming might.)

I've heard rumblings that the Wii is over-hyped and that Nintendo's creative vision with the Wii is bound to plateau before long, which are points that I don't disagree with, but even if those things do become obviously true, the Wii can still enjoy a healthy lifespan and a lot of fan support if Nintendo can leverage their massive install base to get good titles from 3rd party developers. There are going to be lots of Wii users by next year--there can be no doubt of that--and it hasn't escaped the attention of the big game publishers that there's a lot of money to be made off of Wii games right now. That's bound to draw out some surprise hits and fuel even more popularity for Nintendo's products.

That's not to say that the Wii is a shoe-in to win the current console war. It's easy to see how the big picture could unfold exactly as it did the last time around, with Nintendo's product ultimately slipping to fringe appeal status and finishing in a lucrative (but un-sexy) third place. What Nintendo has in the Wii that they didn't have with the GameCube is simply an opportunity to make a much bigger splash than they did last time, and so far they've been succeeding brilliantly--so brilliantly, actually, that they may yet manage to become the number one console of this generation. But with the Wii's lack-luster hardware and shaky appeal for hardcore gamers, it's easy to see how reports of the Wii's imminent victory are grossly exaggerated.

Prediction #3: Owning an Xbox 360 may turn out to be unnecessary for hardcore console gaming fans.

As much as I've come to admire how elegant the Xbox 360 can be (when everything is working smoothly), it still has a primarily American appeal, and a lot of those kinds of sports games and FPS action titles (things like EA Sports titles) can also be had on the PS3 anyway. I am sorely tempted to get an Xbox 360--and will likely crack before the year is out--but I suspect that what will end up happening is that I'll get a great deal of enjoyment out of my 360 up until the point where the PS3 and the Wii are getting enough new releases every month to shut the 360 out of the picture. It is possible that the 360 will see enough exclusive titles to hold its own, or that the PlayStation 3 will do poorly and leave enough of a gap for the 360 to fill, but neither of those situations strikes me as the most likely scenerio.

Basically what I'm calling for here is for history to repeat itself, with a catch: it's possible that Nintendo and Microsoft will gain enough ground to weaken Sony's position and put the PS3 at some spot other than first place. If Sony can pull off a great line-up of PS3 games, on the other hand, I don't doubt that we'll end up with PS3 eventually dominating the market, just as its predecessor did. A more interesting question might be whether or not the Xbox 360 can keep up with the Wii given that Nintendo is so much stronger of a player this time around. My overall prediction is that by 2009 we'll have PS3 as the most desirable console for real console gamers, with the Wii in second and the Xbox 360 in third.

posted by Parappa @ 2:58 PM