Wii > PS3?
Until recently, my take on the dynamics of the upcoming "next generation" of game consoles had been fairly well defined. The XBox 360 is playing its "doomed to fail" role quite well (I'll admit that there's still hope for it), which leaves me buying both a PlayStation 3 and a Nintendo Wii, where the PS3 is the main attraction and the Wii is the sideshow--sort of like how currently my PS2 is my primary console and the GameCube is there for backup. I don't even own an XBox, which isn't to say that I don't like the XBox, because I do, but I don't see the same appeal in the XBox 360 that I found in the original. Anyway, my original plan was to buy a PlayStation 3 immediately at launch and wait to see how appealing the Wii really is before getting one. But lately the Wii is sounding better and better, and the PlayStation 3 is sounding, well, worse.Initially I was excited by the PS3's promises to be the true "next gen" console with powers far out-classing the XBox 360. I was assuming that Microsoft had merely jumped the gun and that the PS3 would be better because it was coming out a full year later, but it's now aparent that part of the reason that the PS3 is going to be more powerful is because it's going to be much more expensive. We're seeing Moore's Law failing for the first time in the console arena, and since the power of the hardware hasn't doubled in the last 18 months, Sony's approach would seem to be to just use hardware that's twice as expensive and pass the cost along to the consumer.
Meanwhile, while Nintendo certainly isn't shy about throwing gimmicks out there (motion-sensitive controllers? the name "Wii"?), they also seem to know what they're doing. The Wii is not going to be a powerful console hardware-wise in comparison to the XBox 360 and the PlayStation 3, but Nintendo's far lower price-point gives them a unique advantage here, and the Nintendo brand may be as strong as it's been in the last 10 years right now. The Wii generated tons of buzz at E3 and it seems that everyone ranging from gamers, to critics, to Nintendo's own competitors want to see the Wii succeed. Meanwhile, gamers are feeling more than a little sting of betrayal at the news that the PS3's price is going to be significantly higher than console fans have ever been charged before for a gaming system. And, of course, the XBox 360 is blowing their early advantage by not having yet put out any "must have" games.
This week has been the final straw for me. First I hear that the Wii is going to feature Nintendo DS connectivity, which I guess is pretty obvious, but the news did remind me of the fun times I've had playing games like Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles and Zelda: Four Swords. And today I read on IGN that the Wii may come out earlier than expected and may even beat the PS3 to market. Somehow that made the last puzzle piece click into place, and I realised that as much as I'm confident in the success of the PlayStation 3, I might be better off using my money to buy a Nintendo Wii on launch day and wait six months to see how well the PlayStation 3 does before buying one. Hell, I might even wait longer to see if the price drops, since I'll have the Wii to tide me over.
It's quite shocking to me that this kind of role-reversal is taking place in my mind--that the Wii is going to be the console to jump on and the PS3 is going to be the "wait until it's really good" purchase. It sure would be crazy if a lot of like-minded gamers did the same thing, and Nintendo over-took Sony in marketshare. Personally, I have no loyalty to the PlayStation brand; the only reason that I'm so big on the PlayStation 2 is because of RPG titles from producers like Nippon Ichi, Square-Enix, and Atlus, as well as a handful of other solid game series like Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo (and Tourist Trophy), and Ico/Shadow of the Colossus, to name a few. Overall, the library of worthwhile games available for the PS2 dwarfs the selection offered by either the GameCube or the XBox, and as long as the PS3 delivers the same thing, it will be a "must have" purchase for me. If Nintendo could somehow leverage their momentum going into this next round of console wars into being able to re-take the top spot in terms of game selection, then I could imagine the Wii actually being a better console than the PS3 overall.
But as long as the majority of Nintendo's most worthwhile games continue to be Nintendo-produced titles like Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Kirby, Star Fox, and the like, I can't see that happening. Nintendo's games are truly great, and they alone are enough to ensure that I will want a Wii, but they are not enough to ensure that I won't want anything else. Until Nintendo can get serious 3rd party producer support behind them, they are doomed to always play second-fiddly in my books. So my prediction now is that, yes, I will probably buy a Wii as soon as they're available and wait on the PlayStation 3 for a bit, but when the PlayStation 3 hits that critical mass of "must have" games, it will become my new primary gaming console. That is, unless Sony screws up horribly and the PS3 never reaches that level of critical mass, or somehow Nintendo manages to hold on to that role.
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